Need cash but don't want to sell? Check if borrowing against your BTC is the smarter option.
Educational tool — not financial adviceNo sales pitch. Just a conversation about borrowing against your BTC safely.
Send an Email1. Bitcoin follows a power law. Giovanni Santostasi’s model (2024) fits 15+ years of daily price data to a log-log regression: log10(price) = a + b × log10(days since genesis). R² exceeds 0.95. This is a statistical regularity rooted in network adoption dynamics, not a trendline drawn through noise.
2. The floor is the absolute worst case — and it has never been breached. Defined as the −2σ band (0.42× trend), the floor represents the lowest price the power law model allows. Bitcoin has never traded below this level in its entire history. A loan whose liquidation price sits below this floor is structurally protected against loss of collateral.
3. Through network adoption, there are structurally more buyers than sellers at floor price levels. At −2σ, long-term holders and dollar-cost averagers see a generational discount. Selling pressure (miners, leveraged liquidations) is finite and self-exhausting. This buyer/seller asymmetry is why the floor has held for 15 years — it is an economic equilibrium, not a coincidence.
4. Selling BTC has a measurable opportunity cost. The power law trend provides an expected growth rate. When you sell Bitcoin, you forfeit that future appreciation. When you borrow against it instead, you pay interest — but keep the asset. The calculator compares these two costs directly: forgone growth (selling) versus interest paid (borrowing). When expected growth exceeds borrowing cost, keeping the BTC is the mathematically cheaper option.
5. Cycle position determines when to repay. The 1.20–1.41× trend range (the “repay zone”) marks where fewer than 15% of all trading days have ever traded. Historically, prices above this range revert toward trend. Repaying your loan in this zone captures most of the upside while the distribution says further gains are increasingly unlikely. This is a statistical threshold, not a guess.
6. Measured from the floor, all volatility is on the upside. If your liquidation price is below the floor, Bitcoin would have to break a 15-year structural support to threaten your position. Any price above the floor — which is where Bitcoin trades 100% of the time — only increases your safety margin. The error term is one-directional: it can only help you.
Verify it yourself. The full power law model, residual distributions, and historical price data are open for inspection at btcpowerlaw.nl.