How is my loan doing?

1. Bitcoin follows a power law. Giovanni Santostasi’s model (2024) fits 15+ years of daily price data to a log-log regression: log10(price) = a + b × log10(days since genesis). R² exceeds 0.95. This is a statistical regularity rooted in network adoption dynamics, not a trendline drawn through noise.

2. The floor (−2σ, 0.42× trend) is the structural safety net. Bitcoin has never traded below this level. A loan whose liquidation price sits below the floor is structurally protected: the asset would have to break a 15-year support level before your collateral is at risk. This is the anchor for every safety calculation on this page.

3. Through network adoption, there are structurally more buyers than sellers at floor price levels. At −2σ, long-term holders and dollar-cost averagers see a generational discount. Selling pressure (miners, leveraged liquidations) is finite and self-exhausting. This buyer/seller asymmetry is why the floor has held for 15 years — it is an economic equilibrium, not a coincidence.

4. The floor rises faster than interest compounds — time is on your side. The “Days to floor” metric calculates when the rising floor will overtake your liquidation price. Because the power law floor grows at the same rate as the trend (a constant multiplier), and loan interest compounds at a fixed APR, there is a crossover point. After that point, your position is structurally protected even if you never add collateral. If interest compounds faster than the floor rises, the monitor warns you explicitly.

5. The sweet spot (1.20–1.41× trend) is where to close your loan. This range marks where fewer than 15% of all trading days have ever traded. Prices above this zone historically revert toward trend. The monitor detects when the price enters this zone and recommends repaying — not because the price will definitely fall, but because the probability-weighted expected value of waiting diminishes rapidly beyond this point.

6. The action framework follows a priority ladder, not a single metric. LTV above 70% triggers “add collateral” regardless of cycle position — survival comes first. If LTV is safe and BTC is in the sweet spot, the action is “repay.” Otherwise, the action is “hold” — because below the sweet spot, the floor protects your downside while the trend pulls price upward. Every recommendation traces back to a specific quantitative threshold.

Verify it yourself. The full power law model, residual distributions, and historical price data are open for inspection at btcpowerlaw.nl.