Everyone guesses. This tool does the math.
Educational tool — not financial advice| Year | BTC stacked | Invested | Value (trend) | Value (floor) |
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No sales pitch. Just a conversation about your Bitcoin savings strategy.
Send an Email1. Bitcoin follows a power law. Giovanni Santostasi’s model (2024) fits 15+ years of daily price data to a log-log regression: log10(price) = a + b × log10(days since genesis). R² exceeds 0.95. This is a statistical regularity rooted in network adoption dynamics, not a trendline drawn through noise.
2. The trend gives us a fair-value baseline. Monthly DCA purchases are priced at the power law trend for each future month. This is the expected long-term value — not a prediction of market price on any given day, but the center of gravity that price oscillates around. Over multi-year horizons, actual buy prices average toward the trend.
3. The floor is the absolute worst case. Defined as the −2σ band (0.42× trend), the floor represents the lowest price the power law model allows. Bitcoin has never traded below this level in its entire history. The “Value (floor)” column in the projection table shows what your stack is worth even if Bitcoin sits at this historical minimum for your entire horizon.
4. Through network adoption, there are structurally more buyers than sellers at floor price levels. At −2σ, long-term holders and dollar-cost averagers see a generational discount. Selling pressure (miners, leveraged liquidations) is finite and self-exhausting. This buyer/seller asymmetry is why the floor has held for 15 years — it is an economic equilibrium, not a coincidence.
5. Measured from the floor, all volatility is on the upside. If the floor column shows your investment growing from $24K to $42K, that is the worst-case trajectory. Any deviation from reality — Bitcoin trading above the floor, which it does 100% of the time — only improves your outcome. The error term is one-directional.
6. The S&P 500 comparison uses 10% nominal CAGR. This is the commonly cited long-term average for US equities. The comparison is geometric (monthly compounding), same as the BTC projection. Neither side accounts for taxes or inflation — both are nominal returns on equal footing.
Verify it yourself. The full power law model, residual distributions, and historical price data are open for inspection at btcpowerlaw.nl.